Preface:

The reason why American e-commerce promotes the express delivery industry is that the growth of weak e-commerce is not fast and the price is low, the growth of business is slowing down, and Amazon's stock diversion effect. Although E-commerce has limited impetus to American Express, it has formed a monopoly pattern of tripartite and breaking away from price war. It is expected that China's express industry will win 3 to 4 express giants through integration in the future.

American Express Industry: Stable Growth, Oligopoly

Overview: The industry has 14.8 billion pieces and a scale of 12.11 billion US dollars. The pattern is tripartite.

In 2017, there were 14.8 billion U.S. express deliveries, with CAGR reaching 6.3% in the past eight years.

In the past few years, although the growth of non-e-commerce has stopped or even decreased, the volume of U.S. express delivery industry has maintained a good growth driven by the growth of e-commerce express delivery. We estimate that the total volume of U.S. express delivery industry has increased from 9.6 billion in 2010 to 14.8 billion in 2017, and CAGR has increased to 6.3% in the past eight years.

In 2017, the US express industry was $121.1 billion, with CAGR reaching 6.0% in the past eight years.

We estimate that the size of the US express industry has increased from $80.5 billion in 2010 to $211.1 billion in 2017, with CAGR of 6.0% in 8 years.

The scale growth rate of American express industry is slightly lower than that of volume growth. The main reason is that the proportion of small weight and low price e-commerce has been rising continuously, which leads to the decline of express unit price.

The U.S. express industry is highly concentrated, showing that the total volume share of three companies, one state-owned enterprise (USPS) +two private enterprises (UPS and FedEx), accounts for more than 90%.

American express industry originated in the mid-19th century. After more than 150 years of development and integration, the current industry structure is monopolistic and very stable. In 2017, American Top3 express giant's domestic express volume totaled 13.3 billion pieces, accounting for more than 90%.

The three giants are the United States Postal Service (USPS), which is controlled by the federal government, and two express private enterprises, United Parcel Service (UPS) and Federal Express (FedEx).

Sino-US Contrast: Decentralized vs Monopoly, Competition vs Cooperation

Demand side: Domestic e-commerce dominates, while American e-commerce accounts for less than 50%.

The proportion of e-commerce demand in China's express market is about 70%, while that in the United States is less than 50%.

For domestic e-commerce volume calculation: We calculate logically the whole industry online purchase GMV/customer unit price = order quantity, and then use order quantity /(order quantity/e-commerce volume) to finally get e-commerce volume.

For the unit price of passengers, we calculate the unit price of passengers in Jingdong according to the semi-annual report of 2017. At the same time, combined with Liu Qiangdong's expression on his social platform that "the unit price of passengers in Jingdong is three times that of the industry", we calculate the unit price of customers in Ali e-commerce at 130 yuan. Considering the unit price of more than 30 yuan, we finally calculate the unit price of domestic e-commerce customers at 169 yuan, and then we can calculate the order. Quantity.

And the order quantity is not equal to the final express delivery volume, we calculate the order quantity according to the Beijing East 2017 semi-annual report: express delivery volume 1.5. In summary, we finally calculated that the domestic express delivery volume in 2017 was about 28.3 billion pieces, accounting for 74% of the industry.

American e-commerce volume calculation process: Because Amazon does not disclose any GMV, unit price and express volume data, so we can only use other ways to calculate the U.S. e-commerce volume.

According to savethepostoffice.com, Amazon's global express package volume in 2013 was estimated to be about 940 million.

Considering that Amazon GMV's compound annual growth rate is about 29% from 2013 to 2017, combined with the domestic express delivery volume CAGR in the past few years is about 4 pcs higher than domestic e-commerce GMV's growth rate, we assume Amazon.

In recent years, the CAGR of express packages is 33%, accounting for about 2.9 billion Amazon packages in 2017. According to Amazon's GMV market share, it is estimated that the total number of e-commerce products in the United States in 2017 is about 7 billion, accounting for 48% of the total express delivery volume.